Robust Optimal Design in Multistage Expansion of a Gas Turbine Cogeneration Plant Under Uncertain Energy Demands

In designing cogeneration plants, the estimation of energy demands is an important work. However, many conditions under which energy demands are estimated have some uncertainty at the design stage. Therefore, designers should consider that energy demands have some uncertainty, evaluate the robustness in the performance under uncertain energy demands, and design plants rationally in consideration of the robustness. The authors have developed a robust optimal design method based on the minimax regret criterion for the single-stage planning of energy supply plants. In this paper, the method is extended for the multistage expansion planning. Under uncertain energy demands increasing stepwise, equipment capacities and utility contract demands as well as energy flow rates for each expansion period are determined in consideration of their sequential relationships to minimize the maximum regret in the annual total cost and satisfy all the possible energy demands for all the expansion periods. Through a case study on a gas turbine cogeneration plant for district energy supply, features of the economic robustness and the robust optimal design are clarified in relation to the uncertainty in energy demands and the numbers of years for the expansion periods.