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TECHNICAL PAPERS

A Dynamical Systems Approach to Failure Prognosis

[+] Author and Article Information
David Chelidze

Department of Mechanical Engineering & Applied Mechanics, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881e-mail: chelidze@egr.uri.edu; http://www.mce.uri.edu/chelidze/

Joseph P. Cusumano

Department of Engineering Science & Mechanics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802e-mail: jpc@crash.esm.psu.edu; http://www.esm.psu.edu/nld/

J. Vib. Acoust 126(1), 2-8 (Feb 26, 2004) (7 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1640638 History: Received February 01, 2003; Revised July 01, 2003; Online February 26, 2004
Copyright © 2004 by ASME
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References

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Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Damage tracking function estimation. Solid black line is the current trajectory of the fast subsystem. Dashed gray line is the corresponding reference trajectory. Model is based on the reference trajectory points shown in gray.
Grahic Jump Location
Schematic diagram of the experimental apparatus of the two-well electro-mechanical oscillator.
Grahic Jump Location
Probability distributions of |E5| (upper) and ln|E5| (lower). 214 points were used for histograms.
Grahic Jump Location
Damage state estimation and failure prognosis: (upper) plot of local mean of measured battery voltage (heavy gray line), fitted nonlinear battery discharge model (dashed black line), and recursively estimated battery state (solid black line) vs. time; (lower) time-to-failure predictions based on damage state estimates. In the time-to-failure predictions, the dashed heavy gray line indicates the true time to failure (known a posteriori), thin black line represents simple time-to-failure estimate using Eq. (20), and thick black line indicates the improved estimate using the failure prognostic filter of Eq. (16).

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